SC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburger SV
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.21–0.49.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 40% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
SC Paderborn 07 created the better chances — the xG read 1.2–0.5 and the shot count agreed (16–9, 6–1 on target). SC Paderborn 07 got into the box far more often (9 shots inside it to 3) and SC Paderborn 07 held 62% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the 1–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
SC Paderborn 07 3-5-2
- 5 S. Castañeda (M)
- 15 N. Noll (G)
- 17 L. Curda (M)
- 21 J. ter Horst (D)
- 22 M. Hansen (D)
- 23 R. Obermair (M)
- 25 T. Scheller (D)
- 27 S. Tigges (F)
- 28 L. Ulrich (M)
- 30 S. Marino (F)
- 40 G. Vidović (M)
Bench: T. Baack, F. Götze, S. Michel, Ruben Müller, R. Philippe, M. Pieringer, M. Schubert, Jonah Benedict Sticker, D. Zeitler
Hamburger SV 3-5-2
- 1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes (G)
- 3 D. Møller Wolfe (M)
- 4 B. Nadir (M)
- 5 M. Adeline (M)
- 7 Z. El Ouahdi (M)
- 15 Y. Poulsen (F)
- 17 W. Omari (D)
- 20 Fábio Vieira (F)
- 28 M. Muheim (M)
- 33 S. Bornauw (D)
- 43 S. Nandja (D)
Bench: Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit, Otto Emerson Stange, S. Tangvik, T. Moffi, A. Sambi Lokonga, L. Lemke, A. Grønbæk, J. Bissi Mouelle, Kofi Jeremy Amoako
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance SC Paderborn 07 or draw | 1.40 | 67.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Double chance Hamburger SV or draw | 1.64 | 57.7% | -1.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 74.8% | +0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — SC Paderborn 07 | 1.66 | 56.2% | +1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Hamburger SV | 2.13 | 43.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 80.6% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.58 | 60.0% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.42 | 39.2% | +0.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.48 | 62.9% | +0.2 pts |
| SC Paderborn 07 over 1.5 team goals | 1.88 | 49.9% | +0.7 pts |
| Hamburger SV over 1.5 team goals | 2.17 | 43.3% | -0.9 pts |
| SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | -1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.99 · 2-1 8.66 · 1-2 9.82 · 1-0 10.31 · 2-2 10.62
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 13:02 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).