Stoke City 0–0 Bristol City
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.71–0.79.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Bristol City to win (46%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 29% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.7–0.8, shots 11–8 with 1–0 on target. Stoke City got into the box far more often (7 shots inside it to 4) and Stoke City held 63% of the ball. A 0–0 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Stoke City 3-4-3
- 1 V. Johansson (G)
- 2 B. Johnson (M)
- 5 L. Graham (D)
- 7 J. McGlynn (F)
- 8 E. Galbraith (M)
- 11 L. Cissé (F)
- 13 J. Devenny (F)
- 16 B. Wilmot (D)
- 18 B. Lawal (D)
- 21 L. Bombino (M)
- 27 El Hadji Djibril Soumaré (M)
Bench: Bae Jun-Ho, R. Boženík, B. Gibson, J. Griffiths, G. Hirst, B. Pearson, T. Rigo, M. Talovierov, J. Tchamadeu
Bristol City 4-2-3-1
- 2 L. Eissat (D)
- 3 C. Pring (D)
- 8 J. Williams (M)
- 9 L. Tolaj (M)
- 12 J. Knight (M)
- 15 L. McNally (D)
- 19 G. Tanner (D)
- 21 Rio Cardines (M)
- 23 D. Ballard (F)
- 27 G. Yah (M)
- 40 B. Collins (G)
Bench: R. Atkinson, S. Bell, B. De Keersmaecker, S. Greenwood, Y. Hirakawa, A. Randell, S. Tickle, S. Twine, J. Wallace
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Stoke City or draw | 1.38 | 68.0% | -1.0 pts |
| Double chance Bristol City or draw | 1.53 | 61.2% | +1.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 70.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Stoke City | 1.68 | 55.3% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bristol City | 2.08 | 44.7% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 70.6% | -2.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46.1% | -3.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.52 | 26.6% | -2.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.77 | 52.5% | -1.9 pts |
| Stoke City over 1.5 team goals | 2.35 | 39.8% | -2.8 pts |
| Bristol City over 1.5 team goals | 2.74 | 34.0% | -1.5 pts |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | +2.2 pts |
| Bristol City clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +2.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.00 · 1-0 7.64 · 0-1 8.68 · 0-0 8.82 · 2-1 9.01
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 13:31 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May 26 | Bristol City | 2-0 | Stoke City |
| 01 Nov 25 | Stoke City | 5-1 | Bristol City |