West Ham 2–3 Southampton
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.60–1.61.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured West Ham to win (50%); it finished with Southampton to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 26% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.6–1.6, shots 28–15 with 10–7 on target. West Ham got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 11). Southampton's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.6 xG, 7 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–3 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
West Ham 4-4-2
- 1 M. Hermansen (G)
- 2 K. Walker-Peters (D)
- 3 M. Kilman (D)
- 5 Morato (D)
- 7 A. Engels (M)
- 10 M. Solomon (M)
- 11 V. Castellanos (F)
- 14 D. Mukasa (M)
- 15 K. Mavropanos (D)
- 17 M. Kanté (F)
- 20 J. Bowen (M)
Bench: E. Austbö, A. Golambeckis, Ezra Mayers, L. Orford, A. Areola, Pablo, J. Piroe, O. Scarles, T. Souček
Southampton 4-2-3-1
- 1 Daniel Peretz (G)
- 3 R. Manning (D)
- 5 J. Stephens (D)
- 7 Léo Scienza (M)
- 8 C. Jander (M)
- 10 F. Azaz (M)
- 11 L. Dobbin (F)
- 13 K. Schlotterbeck (D)
- 14 J. Bree (D)
- 27 K. Matsuki (M)
- 30 J. Ward-Prowse (M)
Bench: Z. Abbott, Cameron Bragg, S. Edozie, T. Fellows, G. Long, D. Mubama, M. Roerslev, Welington, N. Wood-Gordon
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance West Ham or draw | 1.19 | 78.8% | +0.8 pts |
| Double chance Southampton or draw | 2.18 | 43.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.20 | 78.2% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — West Ham | 1.29 | 72.2% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Southampton | 3.36 | 27.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.12 | 83.5% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 64.6% | +0.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.15 | 44.0% | +0.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.47 | 63.1% | -0.2 pts |
| West Ham over 1.5 team goals | 1.49 | 62.7% | +0.6 pts |
| Southampton over 1.5 team goals | 2.62 | 35.6% | -0.5 pts |
| West Ham clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | +2.2 pts |
| Southampton clean sheet | 8.00 | 11.9% | -1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 8.06 · 1-1 8.44 · 2-0 10.33 · 1-0 10.59 · 3-1 11.32
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).