1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 Bayer Leverkusen
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–0; by chance quality the match ran 3.34–0.68.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Bayer Leverkusen to win (39%); it finished with 1899 Hoffenheim to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 36% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
1899 Hoffenheim created the better chances — the xG read 3.3–0.7 and the shot count agreed (20–9, 6–1 on target). 1899 Hoffenheim got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 6). On the balance of chances, the 3–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
1899 Hoffenheim 4-2-3-1
- 1 O. Baumann (G)
- 5 O. Kabak (D)
- 7 L. Avdullahu (M)
- 10 A. Hložek (M)
- 11 F. Asllani (M)
- 14 A. Daghim (F)
- 18 W. Burger (M)
- 22 A. Prass (M)
- 28 K. Machida (D)
- 34 V. Coufal (D)
- 39 M. Rots (D)
Bench: Natnael Abraha, Bernardo, B. Conté, V. Gendrey, R. Hranáč, A. Kramarić, Cajetan Benjamin Lenz, Max Moerstedt, L. Philipp
Bayer Leverkusen 4-2-3-1
- 1 M. Flekken (G)
- 2 F. Medina (D)
- 3 Miguel Gutiérrez (D)
- 4 J. Quansah (D)
- 6 E. Fernández (M)
- 12 E. Tapsoba (D)
- 14 P. Schick (F)
- 19 M. Diaby (M)
- 23 N. Tella (M)
- 24 Aleix García (M)
- 30 I. Maza (M)
Bench: M. Tillman, T. Oermann, Afonso Moreira, Lucas Vázquez, J. Hofmann, V. Boniface, J. Blaswich, L. Badé, R. Andrich
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw | 1.78 | 53.2% | -5.6 pts |
| Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw | 1.35 | 69.9% | +5.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 76.9% | +0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1899 Hoffenheim | 2.37 | 39.2% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bayer Leverkusen | 1.53 | 60.8% | +7.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.06 | 88.0% | +1.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.30 | 72.8% | +4.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.78 | 53.6% | +4.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.29 | 72.4% | +2.5 pts |
| 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.5 team goals | 1.82 | 51.4% | -0.3 pts |
| Bayer Leverkusen over 1.5 team goals | 1.48 | 63.4% | +7.0 pts |
| 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet | 7.00 | 13.6% | -2.2 pts |
| Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 9.09 · 1-2 9.18 · 2-2 9.56 · 2-1 11.28 · 1-3 12.84
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-25 14:25 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 26 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1-0 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 23 Aug 25 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1-2 | 1899 Hoffenheim |