Athletic Club 4–0 Getafe
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.77–0.42.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Athletic Club to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 65% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Athletic Club created the better chances — the xG read 0.8–0.4 and the shot count agreed (11–7, 4–1 on target). Athletic Club held 62% of the ball. Athletic Club's finishing ran hot — 4 from 0.8 xG, 4 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 4–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
- 1 Unai Simón (G)
- 3 Dani Vivian (D)
- 4 Aitor Paredes (D)
- 7 Álex Berenguer (M)
- 9 I. Williams (M)
- 10 Nico Williams (M)
- 15 Hugo Rincón (D)
- 16 Ruíz de Galarreta (M)
- 17 Yuri (D)
- 21 Maroan Sannadi (F)
- 28 Peio Canales (M)
Bench: Nico Serrano, Beñat Prados, Yeray, Alejandro Rego, Álex Padilla, Robert Navarro, J. Louis-Jean, Mikel Jauregizar, Beñat Gerenabarrena, Jesús Areso, Christian Imga, Jesús Vizcay Hurtado
Getafe 4-4-2
- 6 Mario Martín (M)
- 8 N. Gudelj (D)
- 10 M. Satriano (F)
- 11 Ramón Terrats (M)
- 13 David Soria (G)
- 14 Daniel Carvajal (D)
- 16 Francho Serrano (M)
- 17 Kiko Femenía (M)
- 20 Iván Azón (F)
- 22 J. Mojica (D)
- 26 J. Valou (D)
Bench: Andrés García, E. Ünal, S. Sazonov, Alberto Risco, Borja Mayoral, J. Letáček, Diego Ferrer, Davinchi, A. Abqar, S. Boselli
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Athletic Club or draw | 1.12 | 84.4% | +1.8 pts |
| Double chance Getafe or draw | 2.43 | 39.0% | -2.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 76.5% | +0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Athletic Club | 1.16 | 80.5% | +3.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Getafe | 4.80 | 19.5% | -3.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.39 | 67.7% | +1.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 43.1% | +1.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.08 | 23.0% | +0.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 2.23 | 41.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Athletic Club over 1.5 team goals | 1.83 | 51.4% | +3.0 pts |
| Getafe over 1.5 team goals | 5.58 | 16.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 1.80 | 51.5% | +1.5 pts |
| Getafe clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | -2.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 4.99 · 2-0 6.11 · 1-1 7.36 · 2-1 8.26 · 0-0 8.42
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-25 12:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr 26 | Getafe | 2-0 | Athletic Club |
| 25 Oct 25 | Athletic Club | 0-1 | Getafe |