Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.27–2.01.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Barcelona to win (64%); it finished with Real Madrid to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 17% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
The xG read 1.3–2 in Real Madrid's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 18–10 overall and 6–5 on target went Barcelona's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Barcelona got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 6) and Barcelona held 62% of the ball.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Barcelona 4-3-3
- 1 Joan García (G)
- 2 João Cancelo (D)
- 5 Pau Cubarsí Paredes (D)
- 7 Fermín (M)
- 8 Pedri (M)
- 10 Lamine Yamal (F)
- 11 Raphinha (F)
- 12 X. Espart (D)
- 16 Rodri (M)
- 17 A. Gordon (F)
- 18 Gerard Martín (D)
Bench: K. Adeyemi, W. Szczęsny, D. Livaković, O. Goren, Gavi, Gabriel Jesus, B. Farinas, H. Abdelkarim, Alejandro Balde, Marc Bernal, A. Campos, F. de Jong
Real Madrid 4-4-2
- 4 D. Huijsen (D)
- 5 J. Bellingham (M)
- 8 F. Valverde (D)
- 10 Kylian Mbappé (F)
- 13 A. Lunin (G)
- 14 A. Tchouaméni (M)
- 15 A. Güler (M)
- 16 I. Konaté (D)
- 17 Marc Cucurella (D)
- 20 Bernardo Silva (M)
- 25 Y. Diomande (F)
Bench: I. Voloshyn, T. Alexander-Arnold, E. Camavinga, A. Rüdiger, Thiago Pitarch, Sergio Mestre, Carlos Espí, Endrick, Éder Militão, D. Dumfries, Brahim Díaz, Álvaro Fernández
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Barcelona or draw | 1.23 | 76.9% | +0.6 pts |
| Double chance Real Madrid or draw | 2.35 | 40.1% | -1.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.14 | 83.0% | +0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Barcelona | 1.30 | 71.6% | +0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Real Madrid | 3.28 | 28.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.04 | 90.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.18 | 80.2% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.52 | 62.3% | +0.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.27 | 73.1% | -1.2 pts |
| Barcelona over 1.5 team goals | 1.26 | 74.1% | +0.8 pts |
| Real Madrid over 1.5 team goals | 1.93 | 48.7% | -1.4 pts |
| Barcelona clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.9 pts |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 11.00 | 8.7% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 9.92 · 3-1 10.71 · 2-2 12.45 · 3-2 13.17 · 1-1 13.97
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-25 19:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 26 | Barcelona | 2-0 | Real Madrid |
| 26 Oct 25 | Real Madrid | 2-1 | Barcelona |