Cadiz 3–1 AD Ceuta FC
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.55–2.43.
The brain read
AD Ceuta FC created the better chances — the xG read 1.6–2.4 and the shot count agreed (11–24, 5–5 on target). AD Ceuta FC got into the box far more often (16 shots inside it to 9) and AD Ceuta FC held 68% of the ball. Cadiz's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.6 xG, 5 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 3–1 flatters Cadiz — on chances created, AD Ceuta FC shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Cadiz 4-4-2
- 2 Beñat de Jesús (D)
- 3 Sergio Arribas (D)
- 6 Manu Fernández (D)
- 13 Jokin Ezkieta (G)
- 14 B. Kovačević (D)
- 16 Antonio Cordero (M)
- 19 Urko Izeta (F)
- 21 V. Kopotun (F)
- 23 Damián Rodríguez (M)
- 24 Ibon Sánchez (M)
- 28 D. A. Zarate Hidalgo (M)
Bench: J. Diaz Peregrina, M. Doué, Álvaro García, David Gil, Cristian Gutiérrez, A. Moueffek, Javi Ontiveros, Jandro Orellana, K. Toibibou, E. Aghama, N. Ukwuije, Borja Vazquez
AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3
- 1 Pedro López (G)
- 2 Toni Abad (D)
- 4 Albert Caparrós (D)
- 5 Adrián Lapeña (D)
- 8 Kuki (F)
- 10 Marino Illescas (M)
- 11 Cedric Teguia (F)
- 14 Y. Bodiger (M)
- 16 Redru (D)
- 19 E. Sevikyan (F)
- 20 Álex Meléndez (M)
Bench: Alejandro Camacho Ramírez, Jordi Escobar, Carlos Hernández, U. Konare, K. Koné, José Matos, Mawuli Mensah, Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro, Alex Petxarroman, O. Sadik, Guille Vallejo, Abraham Bueno Espinosa
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Cadiz or draw | 1.27 | 73.8% | -2.4 pts |
| Double chance AD Ceuta FC or draw | 1.77 | 53.2% | +2.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.9% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Cadiz | 1.47 | 63.2% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — AD Ceuta FC | 2.53 | 36.8% | +3.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 50.2% | -0.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.18 | 29.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.71 | 54.3% | +0.6 pts |
| Cadiz over 1.5 team goals | 2.01 | 46.5% | -2.2 pts |
| AD Ceuta FC over 1.5 team goals | 2.99 | 31.2% | +1.9 pts |
| Cadiz clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +0.0 pts |
| AD Ceuta FC clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.11 · 1-0 7.10 · 2-1 7.90 · 2-0 9.36 · 0-0 9.81
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-25 15:05 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar 26 | AD Ceuta FC | 2-1 | Cadiz |
| 28 Sep 25 | Cadiz | 0-0 | AD Ceuta FC |