Castellón 4–0 Sporting Gijon
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.88–0.63.
The brain read
Castellón created the better chances — the xG read 1.9–0.6 and the shot count agreed (14–8, 6–3 on target). Castellón's finishing ran hot — 4 from 1.9 xG, 6 of 14 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 4–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Castellón 4-4-2
- 4 A. Sienra (D)
- 5 Alberto Jiménez (D)
- 6 M. Orozco (M)
- 8 Barri (M)
- 10 Israel Suero (F)
- 13 R. Matthys (G)
- 14 Iñigo Córdoba (D)
- 16 A. Jakobsen (M)
- 18 Pablo Santiago (M)
- 21 Álvaro Martín (F)
- 22 J. Mellot (D)
Bench: Hamza Bellari, Lucas Alcázar, F. Ceccherini, A. Gala, Varo García, I. Kostis, D. Muale Nzanza, Rodrigo Miguel Ferreira Rêgo, A. Saipi, Raúl Sánchez, Martín Conde, J. Vlak
Sporting Gijon 4-4-2
- 1 Rubén Yáñez (G)
- 2 Guille Rosas (D)
- 3 Pablo García (M)
- 4 E. Gularte (D)
- 7 Gaspar Campos (F)
- 10 César Gelabert (M)
- 14 Álex Corredera (M)
- 19 J. Otero (F)
- 22 Hugo Guillamón (M)
- 23 Jorge Sáenz (D)
- 44 Andrés Cuenca (D)
Bench: Aimar Duñabeitia, Pablo Vázquez, A. Sarco, Diego Sánchez, Enol Prendes, Nacho Martín, Iker Martínez, M. Loum, C. Ferreres, Arana, Diego Matabuena Álvarez, B. Rubio
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Castellón or draw | 1.12 | 83.9% | +0.0 pts |
| Double chance Sporting Gijon or draw | 2.52 | 37.3% | +0.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.19 | 78.8% | -0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Castellón | 1.18 | 79.5% | +0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sporting Gijon | 4.58 | 20.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 78.6% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57.3% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.61 | 35.9% | +0.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.76 | 52.8% | -0.2 pts |
| Castellón over 1.5 team goals | 1.53 | 61.0% | +0.3 pts |
| Sporting Gijon over 1.5 team goals | 3.72 | 25.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Castellón clean sheet | 2.25 | 41.1% | +0.0 pts |
| Sporting Gijon clean sheet | 6.50 | 14.6% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-0 7.24 · 1-0 7.34 · 2-1 7.44 · 1-1 7.75 · 3-0 10.21
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-25 17:25 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 26 | Sporting Gijon | 4-1 | Castellón |
| 05 Oct 25 | Castellón | 3-1 | Sporting Gijon |