Celta Vigo 0–0 Real Betis
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.92–1.14.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Real Betis to win (39%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 28% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.9–1.1, shots 12–15 with 4–2 on target. Celta Vigo's finishing let them down — 0 from 0.9 xG despite 4 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A 0–0 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Celta Vigo 3-4-3
- 3 Marcos Alonso (D)
- 6 I. Moriba (M)
- 11 Pablo Durán (F)
- 13 I. Radu (G)
- 14 Aleix Febas (M)
- 16 Hugo González (F)
- 17 Javi Rueda (M)
- 18 Yoel Lago (D)
- 20 Javi Rodríguez (D)
- 22 Javi Galán (M)
- 23 Hugo Álvarez (F)
Bench: Iván Villar, Ferran Jutglà, A. Faye, C. Driouech, Sergio Carreira, S. Cáceres, H. Burcio, A. Bayındır, Iago Aspas, Andrés Antañón, W. Swedberg
Real Betis 4-2-3-1
- 1 Álvaro Vallés (G)
- 3 Diego Llorente (D)
- 4 Natan (D)
- 7 Antony (M)
- 10 A. Ezzalzouli (M)
- 12 Ángel Ortiz (D)
- 16 V. Gómez (D)
- 18 N. Deossa (F)
- 21 Marc Roca (M)
- 22 Isco (M)
- 25 Dani Ceballos (M)
Bench: Marc Bartra, Héctor Bellerín, Diego Conde, Álvaro Fidalgo, Pablo Fornals, Fran García, Manu González, G. Lo Celso, J. A. Morante, T. Parrott, Rodrigo Riquelme, Aitor Ruibal
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Celta Vigo or draw | 1.63 | 58.1% | -3.0 pts |
| Double chance Real Betis or draw | 1.36 | 69.5% | +2.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 72.4% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Celta Vigo | 2.21 | 42.1% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Real Betis | 1.61 | 57.9% | +3.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 75.6% | +1.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.78 | 53.5% | +1.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.86 | 33.0% | +1.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.59 | 58.5% | +1.7 pts |
| Celta Vigo over 1.5 team goals | 2.46 | 38.2% | -0.7 pts |
| Real Betis over 1.5 team goals | 2.01 | 46.8% | +3.5 pts |
| Celta Vigo clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | -3.3 pts |
| Real Betis clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.32 · 1-2 8.43 · 0-1 8.93 · 1-0 10.56 · 2-1 10.59
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-25 15:05 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 26 | Real Betis | 1-1 | Celta Vigo |
| 27 Aug 25 | Celta Vigo | 1-1 | Real Betis |