Estoril 1–3 Moreirense
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–3; by chance quality the match ran 2.09–1.39.
The brain read
Estoril created the better chances — the xG read 2.1–1.4 and the shot count agreed (26–13, 7–4 on target). Estoril got into the box far more often (20 shots inside it to 8). Estoril's finishing let them down — 1 from 2.1 xG despite 7 of 26 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 1–3 flatters Moreirense — on chances created, Estoril shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.