Hellas Verona 1–1 Pisa
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.69–1.55.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Hellas Verona to win (42%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Pisa created the better chances — the xG read 0.7–1.6 and the shot count agreed (11–20, 3–4 on target). Pisa got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 7). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Pisa shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Hellas Verona 4-2-3-1
- 4 G. Zappa (D)
- 5 A. Edmundsson (D)
- 9 A. Sarr (M)
- 14 D. Livramento (M)
- 17 A. Le Borgne (M)
- 20 G. Kastanos (M)
- 25 D. Mosquera (F)
- 28 T. Slotsager (D)
- 34 S. Perilli (G)
- 44 E. Iannoni (M)
- 71 D. De Battisti (D)
Bench: S. Mulattieri, N. Calabrese, F. Cham, P. Dawidowicz, C. Ekuban, M. Frese, A. Harroui, N. Leali, N. Lella, K. Sezonienko, T. Suslov, R. Akale
Pisa 3-4-2-1
- 2 R. Bozhinov (D)
- 3 S. Angori (M)
- 13 A. Primasso (D)
- 14 F. Loyola (M)
- 17 E. Rao (M)
- 29 O. Correia (M)
- 32 S. Moreo (M)
- 33 A. Calabresi (D)
- 37 A. Petagna (F)
- 72 S. Zanon (M)
- 98 A. Confente (G)
Bench: A. Caracciolo, Tomás Esteves, I. Ferrah, G. Leone, M. Léris, T. Marras, G. Piccinini, F. Pittarello, S. Scuffet, İ. Vural, S. Canestrelli, F. Coppola
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Hellas Verona or draw | 1.36 | 69.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Double chance Pisa or draw | 1.60 | 58.6% | +0.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 72.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Hellas Verona | 1.63 | 57.1% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Pisa | 2.17 | 42.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 75.3% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 51.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.98 | 31.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.64 | 56.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Hellas Verona over 1.5 team goals | 2.10 | 44.6% | +0.0 pts |
| Pisa over 1.5 team goals | 2.54 | 36.7% | +0.3 pts |
| Hellas Verona clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Pisa clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.16 · 1-0 8.36 · 2-1 8.66 · 0-1 10.11 · 1-2 10.29
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-25 16:05 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb 26 | Hellas Verona | 0-0 | Pisa |
| 18 Oct 25 | Pisa | 0-0 | Hellas Verona |