Hull City 1–1 Brentford
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.92–1.87.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Brentford to win (49%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 26% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.9–1.9, shots 12–14 with 2–6 on target. Brentford got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 7). Hull City's finishing let them down — 1 from 1.9 xG despite 2 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Hull City 5-4-1
- 2 L. Coyle (D)
- 3 R. Giles (D)
- 6 S. Ajayi (D)
- 9 O. McBurnie (F)
- 10 M. Belloumi (M)
- 15 J. Egan (D)
- 19 K. Tzolakis (G)
- 21 E. Stroud (M)
- 22 L. Herrington (D)
- 27 R. Slater (M)
- 42 T. Iroegbunam (M)
Bench: M. Cho, R. Vaz, M. Crooks, B. Norton-Cuffy, J. Gelhardt, S. Thomas, H. Morita, P. McNair, D. Phillips
Brentford 4-2-3-1
- 1 C. Kelleher (G)
- 2 A. Hickey (D)
- 4 S. van den Berg (D)
- 7 K. Schade (M)
- 8 M. Jensen (M)
- 9 Thiago (F)
- 11 D. Ouattara (M)
- 18 M. Sangaré (M)
- 20 K. Ajer (D)
- 23 K. Lewis-Potter (M)
- 33 M. Kayode (D)
Bench: Gustavo Gomes, C. Wilson, M. Damsgaard, J. Anthony, Jannik Schuster, B. Fredrick, E. Diouf, N. Collins, H. Valdimarsson
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Hull City or draw | 2.19 | 43.1% | -2.1 pts |
| Double chance Brentford or draw | 1.18 | 80.2% | +1.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 76.7% | +0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Hull City | 3.63 | 25.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Brentford | 1.25 | 74.4% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 79.0% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.66 | 57.4% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.59 | 36.5% | +0.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.65 | 56.6% | -0.0 pts |
| Hull City over 1.5 team goals | 3.20 | 29.3% | -0.9 pts |
| Brentford over 1.5 team goals | 1.61 | 58.3% | +1.4 pts |
| Hull City clean sheet | 6.50 | 14.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Brentford clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.62 · 1-2 7.80 · 0-1 8.11 · 0-2 8.71 · 1-3 12.00
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-25 13:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).