Lecce 0–2 Juventus
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.02–1.13.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Juventus to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 67% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1–1.1, shots 16–8 with 4–2 on target. Lecce got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 7). Lecce's finishing let them down — 0 from 1 xG despite 4 of 16 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 0–2 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Lecce 4-3-3
- 4 Kialonda Gaspar (D)
- 7 A. Ahmed Fatah (F)
- 11 K. N’Dri (F)
- 14 Y. Maleh (M)
- 17 Danilo Veiga (D)
- 25 A. Gallo (D)
- 30 W. Falcone (G)
- 44 Tiago Gabriel (D)
- 69 W. Geubbels (F)
- 77 M. Kaba (M)
- 79 O. Ngom (M)
Bench: M. Bleve, N. Štulić, E. Scott, A. Borbei, A. Dembélé, Paco Esteban, S. Fofana, O. Gandelman, Olaf Gorter, G. Jean, Joël Monteiro, C. Ndaba
Juventus 3-4-1-2
- 3 Bremer (D)
- 4 F. Gatti (M)
- 8 T. Koopmeiners (M)
- 9 R. Kolo Muani (F)
- 12 Douglas Luiz (M)
- 15 P. Kalulu (D)
- 20 A. Cambiaso (M)
- 22 W. McKennie (M)
- 25 G. Vicario (G)
- 26 J. Lucumí (D)
- 27 N. Woltemade (F)
Bench: P. Sarr, D. Rugani, C. Pinsoglio, Neto, J. Cabal, J. Boga, Kerim-Sam Alajbegović, E. Zhegrova, L. Kelly
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Lecce or draw | 2.45 | 38.6% | +3.6 pts |
| Double chance Juventus or draw | 1.13 | 84.1% | -2.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 77.3% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lecce | 4.55 | 20.5% | +3.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Juventus | 1.18 | 79.5% | -3.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 76.2% | +2.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 53.2% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.90 | 32.6% | +1.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.85 | 50.3% | +3.8 pts |
| Lecce over 1.5 team goals | 4.13 | 22.7% | +4.2 pts |
| Juventus over 1.5 team goals | 1.62 | 57.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Lecce clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | +1.1 pts |
| Juventus clean sheet | 2.10 | 44.3% | -4.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-1 6.65 · 0-2 7.08 · 1-1 7.54 · 1-2 7.74 · 0-3 10.72
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-25 16:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09 May 26 | Lecce | 0-1 | Juventus |
| 03 Jan 26 | Juventus | 1-1 | Lecce |