Liverpool 2–0 Brighton
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.95–1.41.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Brighton to win (37%); it finished with Liverpool to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 36% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Brighton created the better chances — the xG read 0.9–1.4, with the shot count roughly even (13–17, 4–1 on target). Brighton held 64% of the ball. Liverpool's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.9 xG, 4 of 13 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 2–0 flatters Liverpool — on chances created, Brighton shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Liverpool 4-2-3-1
- 1 Alisson Becker (G)
- 4 V. van Dijk (D)
- 5 J. Jacquet (D)
- 6 M. Kerkez (D)
- 7 F. Wirtz (M)
- 9 A. Isak (F)
- 10 A. Mac Allister (M)
- 18 C. Gakpo (M)
- 29 B. Barcola (M)
- 33 R. Araújo (D)
- 38 R. Gravenberch (M)
Bench: R. Ngumoha, G. Mamardashvili, J. Gomez, K. Tsimikas, W. Endo, T. Nyoni, J. McConnell, F. Chiesa, L. Koumas
Brighton 4-2-3-1
- 1 B. Verbruggen (G)
- 5 L. Dunk (D)
- 13 P. Groß (M)
- 14 José María Andrés Baixauli (M)
- 19 C. Kostoulas (F)
- 21 O. Boscagli (D)
- 24 F. Kadıoğlu (D)
- 25 D. Gómez (M)
- 26 Y. Ayari (M)
- 29 M. De Cuyper (M)
- 44 L. Vušković (D)
Bench: P. David, I. Osman, G. Rutter, M. Yalcouyé, M. O'Riley, J. Hinshelwood, Costinha, J. Hadjam, J. Steele
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Liverpool or draw | 1.35 | 70.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Double chance Brighton or draw | 1.74 | 54.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.6% | +1.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Liverpool | 1.54 | 60.6% | +1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Brighton | 2.36 | 39.4% | -1.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 81.5% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.54 | 61.4% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.33 | 41.0% | +0.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.46 | 63.5% | +0.5 pts |
| Liverpool over 1.5 team goals | 1.75 | 53.6% | +1.5 pts |
| Brighton over 1.5 team goals | 2.22 | 42.3% | +0.5 pts |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Brighton clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | -1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.49 · 2-1 8.62 · 1-0 10.47 · 1-2 10.72 · 2-2 11.06
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-25 13:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 26 | Brighton | 2-1 | Liverpool |
| 13 Dec 25 | Liverpool | 2-0 | Brighton |