Motherwell 0–2 Heart Of Midlothian
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.34–1.12.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Motherwell to win (39%); it finished with Heart Of Midlothian to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 34% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.3–1.1, shots 17–14 with 5–5 on target. Motherwell got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 10). Motherwell's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.3 xG despite 5 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 0–2 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.