Real Sociedad 2–1 Levante
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 2.54–0.70.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Real Sociedad to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 41% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Real Sociedad created the better chances — the xG read 2.5–0.7 and the shot count agreed (17–6, 3–2 on target). Real Sociedad got into the box far more often (14 shots inside it to 4) and Real Sociedad held 62% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the 2–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Real Sociedad 4-4-2
- 1 Álex Remiro (G)
- 4 Jon Gorrotxategi (M)
- 6 Jon Martín (D)
- 8 Beñat Turrientes (M)
- 9 O. Óskarsson (F)
- 10 Mikel Oyarzabal (F)
- 11 Gonçalo Guedes (M)
- 17 Sergio Gómez (D)
- 19 M. Sarr (D)
- 22 Héctor Fort (D)
- 24 L. Sučić (M)
Bench: Barrenetxea, Y. Herrera, T. Kubo, Unai Marrero, Pablo Marín, Aihen Muñoz, J. Ochieng, Jon Pacheco, Carlos Soler, A. Zakharyan, Zubeldia, J. Aramburu
Levante 4-4-2
- 2 A. Mandi (D)
- 3 Ifeanyi Ndukwe (D)
- 6 Reque (M)
- 7 Brugui (M)
- 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti (M)
- 9 Iván Romero (F)
- 10 P. Ratkov (F)
- 13 M. Ryan (G)
- 23 Manu Sánchez (D)
- 24 T. Fernández (M)
- 29 Nacho Pérez (D)
Bench: Paco Cortés, Jorge Cabello, Pablo Cuñat, Etta Eyong, Víctor García, Yanis Musuayi, Primo, Oriol Rey, M. Santos, Hugo Sotelo, A. Tape, J. Toljan
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Real Sociedad or draw | 1.17 | 81.2% | +2.4 pts |
| Double chance Levante or draw | 2.42 | 39.1% | -5.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.19 | 79.7% | +3.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Real Sociedad | 1.22 | 76.5% | +4.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Levante | 3.97 | 23.5% | -4.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 84.1% | +4.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.43 | 65.5% | +7.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.13 | 44.7% | +7.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.51 | 61.5% | +3.6 pts |
| Real Sociedad over 1.5 team goals | 1.43 | 65.6% | +8.2 pts |
| Levante over 1.5 team goals | 2.84 | 33.1% | +1.1 pts |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | -2.5 pts |
| Levante clean sheet | 8.00 | 11.9% | -3.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 7.77 · 1-1 8.89 · 2-0 9.54 · 1-0 10.16 · 3-1 10.58
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-25 17:25 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr 26 | Real Sociedad | 2-0 | Levante |
| 20 Dec 25 | Levante | 1-1 | Real Sociedad |