Rennes 3–0 Strasbourg
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.67–0.93.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Rennes to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 59% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Rennes created the better chances — the xG read 1.7–0.9, with the shot count roughly even (15–12, 5–4 on target). Rennes's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.7 xG, 5 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 3–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Rennes 5-3-2
- 4 C. Cresswell (D)
- 11 Mousa Tamari (F)
- 17 S. Szymański (M)
- 18 M. Nagida (D)
- 21 V. Rongier (M)
- 22 B. Dia (F)
- 24 A. Rouault (D)
- 30 B. Samba (G)
- 45 M. Camara (M)
- 48 A. Ait Boudlal (D)
- 95 P. Frankowski (D)
Bench: Kilian Belazzoug, Q. Merlin, Gonçalo Oliveira, B. Reynolds, A. Thomasson, L. Blas, D. Cissé, I. Soumaré, Eliezer Mayenda
Strasbourg 4-2-3-1
- 1 F. Jörgensen (G)
- 4 J. Mitchell (D)
- 10 G. Reyna (M)
- 14 Dário Essugo (M)
- 16 G. Antwi (D)
- 21 P. Diop (M)
- 23 Diogo Sousa (M)
- 31 Abdoul Karim Coulibaly (D)
- 36 Oso (D)
- 40 C. Harder (F)
- 80 Gessime Yassine (M)
Bench: M. Piekutowski, Y. Becker, L. Høgsberg, S. El Mourabet, Tyrese Noubissie, M. Godo, O. Kellyman, J. Ortega, Yaya Dieme
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Rennes or draw | 1.25 | 75.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Double chance Strasbourg or draw | 2.03 | 46.6% | +1.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.22 | 77.7% | +0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Rennes | 1.36 | 68.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Strasbourg | 2.94 | 31.6% | +1.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 84.3% | +0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.43 | 66.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.10 | 45.5% | -0.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.42 | 65.2% | +0.3 pts |
| Rennes over 1.5 team goals | 1.53 | 61.4% | -1.2 pts |
| Strasbourg over 1.5 team goals | 2.37 | 39.6% | +0.5 pts |
| Rennes clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Strasbourg clean sheet | 7.00 | 13.6% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 8.25 · 1-1 8.51 · 2-2 11.18 · 1-0 11.25 · 2-0 11.29
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-25 16:06 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 26 | Strasbourg | 0-3 | Rennes |
| 02 Nov 25 | Rennes | 4-1 | Strasbourg |