Sunderland 0–0 Leeds
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.99–0.63.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Sunderland to win (40%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 25% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Sunderland created the better chances — the xG read 1–0.6 and the shot count agreed (15–11, 4–4 on target). Sunderland's finishing let them down — 0 from 1 xG despite 4 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Sunderland shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Sunderland 4-2-3-1
- 9 B. Brobbey (F)
- 10 N. Angulo (M)
- 11 C. Rigg (M)
- 13 L. O'Nien (D)
- 17 Reinildo (D)
- 20 N. Mukiele (D)
- 22 R. Roefs (G)
- 27 N. Sadiki (M)
- 28 E. Le Fée (M)
- 32 T. Hume (D)
- 34 G. Xhaka (M)
Bench: M. Ellborg, H. Diarra, O. Alderete, Jules Ahoka, D. Methalie, J. Angulo, C. Talbi, M. Fofana, Timur Tuterov
Leeds 3-4-2-1
- 1 J. Trafford (G)
- 2 J. Bogle (M)
- 3 G. Gudmundsson (M)
- 4 E. Ampadu (M)
- 5 T. Muharemović (D)
- 9 D. Calvert-Lewin (F)
- 10 H. Wilson (M)
- 11 B. Aaronson (M)
- 15 J. Bijol (D)
- 22 A. Tanaka (M)
- 24 J. Justin (D)
Bench: M. Zetterer, M. Bard, A. Stach, Alfie Cresswell, S. Longstaff, I. Gruev, L. Nmecha, N. Okafor, J. Bahoya
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Sunderland or draw | 1.50 | 63.1% | +1.9 pts |
| Double chance Leeds or draw | 1.40 | 67.5% | -0.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.36 | 69.4% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sunderland | 2.00 | 46.5% | +2.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Leeds | 1.74 | 53.5% | -2.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.38 | 68.2% | -0.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.21 | 43.2% | -1.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.01 | 23.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.85 | 50.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Sunderland over 1.5 team goals | 2.87 | 32.6% | +0.4 pts |
| Leeds over 1.5 team goals | 2.61 | 36.0% | -2.3 pts |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +2.3 pts |
| Leeds clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | -2.5 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.71 · 0-1 7.37 · 0-0 7.96 · 1-0 8.17 · 1-2 9.54
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-25 16:25 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar 26 | Leeds | 0-1 | Sunderland |
| 28 Dec 25 | Sunderland | 1-1 | Leeds |