Toulouse 0–0 Estac Troyes
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.70–0.38.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Toulouse to win (76%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 16% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.7–0.4, shots 7–8 with 3–0 on target. Toulouse got into the box far more often (6 shots inside it to 2) and Toulouse held 63% of the ball. A 0–0 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Toulouse 4-4-2
- 2 R. Nicolaisen (D)
- 3 M. McKenzie (D)
- 8 T. Jørgensen (M)
- 12 C. Tapé (D)
- 13 J. Russell-Rowe (F)
- 14 N. Sigur (M)
- 15 A. Dønnum (M)
- 16 G. Restes (G)
- 20 C. Tengstedt (F)
- 22 R. Messali (D)
- 23 C. Cásseres (M)
Bench: A. Vossah, T. Collin, Y. Azizi, M. Amougou, I. Diallo, S. Hidalgo, S. Koumbassa, N. Schmidt, Julián Vignolo
Estac Troyes 4-3-3
- 2 L. Maronnier (D)
- 4 M. Diaz (D)
- 5 P. Gozzi (D)
- 6 A. Monfray (D)
- 8 M. Diop (M)
- 10 M. Ifnaoui (F)
- 17 A. Mille (M)
- 20 R. Ripart (F)
- 23 T. Nkada (F)
- 29 D. Karim (M)
- 40 H. Konaté (G)
Bench: P. Beach, K. Diawara, I. Gomis, H. Picard, A. Phliponeau, J. Le Douaron, I. Soukouna, Noah Donkor, Lassana Simakha
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Toulouse or draw | 1.14 | 83.4% | +2.8 pts |
| Double chance Estac Troyes or draw | 2.51 | 37.7% | -4.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.20 | 78.9% | +1.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Toulouse | 1.18 | 79.1% | +4.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Estac Troyes | 4.46 | 20.9% | -4.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 80.5% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.58 | 60.4% | +1.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.39 | 39.5% | +1.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.65 | 56.4% | -1.2 pts |
| Toulouse over 1.5 team goals | 1.48 | 63.3% | +3.9 pts |
| Estac Troyes over 1.5 team goals | 3.37 | 27.8% | -2.4 pts |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +2.0 pts |
| Estac Troyes clean sheet | 8.00 | 11.9% | -2.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 7.67 · 1-1 8.20 · 1-0 8.24 · 2-0 8.25 · 3-1 11.00
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-25 16:06 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).