Montpellier 2–1 RED Star FC 93
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.62–0.62.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.6–0.6, shots 6–12 with 3–5 on target. RED Star FC 93 got into the box far more often (8 shots inside it to 4). Montpellier's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.6 xG, 3 of 6 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Montpellier 4-2-3-1
- 3 Naoufel El Hannach (D)
- 5 F. Tardieu (M)
- 6 Y. Mouanga (D)
- 9 Lacine Megnan-Pave (M)
- 11 M. Camara (F)
- 15 J. Laporte (D)
- 18 N. Pays (M)
- 28 Y. Zouaoui (D)
- 31 S. Ngapandouetnbu (G)
- 40 N. Vidal-Cartoux (M)
- 44 T. Chennahi (M)
Bench: Hichem Abderrebi, Gregory Ayem, Y. Benhattab, Daryll Benlahlou, Massaoly Diarra, V. DžodiÄ, D. Meddah, N. Mukiele, Everson
RED Star FC 93 4-2-3-1
- 2 T. Magnin (D)
- 3 M. Huard (D)
- 5 J. Escartin (D)
- 6 B. Danger (M)
- 7 D. Durand (M)
- 10 S. Khaoui (M)
- 16 G. Poussin (G)
- 19 I. Halifa (M)
- 20 D. Durivaux (D)
- 23 J. Ikanga A Ngele (F)
- 27 G. Kyeremeh (M)
Bench: Leonardo Buta, Idrissa Sabaly, S. Renel, Cheick Konate, I. Despotovic, K. Cissé, C. Bianay Balcot, Yanis Benchaouch Marty, E. Zidane
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Montpellier or draw | 1.37 | 68.4% | +3.0 pts |
| Double chance RED Star FC 93 or draw | 1.58 | 59.3% | -2.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.3% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Montpellier | 1.66 | 56.3% | +4.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — RED Star FC 93 | 2.14 | 43.7% | -4.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 76.2% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 53.0% | -0.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.88 | 32.5% | +0.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.61 | 57.7% | +0.1 pts |
| Montpellier over 1.5 team goals | 2.10 | 44.5% | +2.2 pts |
| RED Star FC 93 over 1.5 team goals | 2.45 | 38.2% | -2.3 pts |
| Montpellier clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +2.3 pts |
| RED Star FC 93 clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | -1.6 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.37 · 1-0 8.52 · 2-1 8.72 · 0-1 9.93 · 1-2 10.13
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-26 19:35 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).