Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Lyon
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.96–0.69.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 63% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1–0.7, shots 17–8 with 10–5 on target. Paris Saint Germain got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 4) and Paris Saint Germain held 68% of the ball. Paris Saint Germain's finishing ran hot — 2 from 1 xG, 10 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
- 2 A. Hakimi (D)
- 6 I. Zabarnyi (D)
- 8 Fabián Ruiz (M)
- 9 Ferran Torres (F)
- 11 M. Akliouche (F)
- 14 D. Doué (F)
- 17 Vitinha (M)
- 33 W. Zaïre-Emery (D)
- 39 M. Safonov (G)
- 51 W. Pacho (D)
- 87 João Neves (M)
Bench: Beraldo, D. Boly, L. Chevalier, L. Digne, Pedro Fernández, M. Godts, L. Hernández, Senny Mayulu, Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha
Lyon 4-3-3
- 1 D. Greif (G)
- 6 T. Tessmann (M)
- 7 E. Nuamah (F)
- 8 C. Tolisso (M)
- 13 Z. Athekame (D)
- 16 Abner (D)
- 18 K. Merah (F)
- 19 M. Niakhaté (D)
- 20 F. Bacher (D)
- 23 T. Morton (M)
- 24 J. Duranville (F)
Bench: N. Nartey, R. Kluivert, K. Boudache, M. Bidstrup, R. Descamps, A. Hamdani, R. Himbert, N. Kamara, Clinton Mata
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw | 1.08 | 87.8% | +2.9 pts |
| Double chance Lyon or draw | 3.34 | 28.3% | -5.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.13 | 83.9% | +2.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Paris Saint Germain | 1.10 | 85.3% | +3.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lyon | 6.40 | 14.7% | -3.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.09 | 85.7% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 69.3% | +1.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.93 | 49.7% | +1.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.60 | 58.3% | -2.9 pts |
| Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 team goals | 1.27 | 73.7% | +3.8 pts |
| Lyon over 1.5 team goals | 3.43 | 27.3% | -4.0 pts |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +3.8 pts |
| Lyon clean sheet | 11.00 | 8.7% | -0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 8.36 · 2-0 8.61 · 3-1 9.62 · 3-0 9.84 · 1-0 10.57
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-26 19:25 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 26 | Paris Saint Germain | 1-2 | Lyon |
| 09 Nov 25 | Lyon | 2-3 | Paris Saint Germain |