Ascoli 2–0 Sampdoria
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.66–0.66.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Ascoli to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 50% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.7–0.7, shots 12–13 with 5–6 on target. Ascoli held 67% of the ball. Ascoli's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.7 xG, 5 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Ascoli 3-5-2
- 1 S. Vitale (G)
- 3 M. Nicoletti (D)
- 4 S. Damiani (M)
- 5 L. Venuti (D)
- 7 A. Silipo (M)
- 8 G. Corradini (M)
- 13 G. Acampora (M)
- 15 S. D'Uffizi (F)
- 19 A. Guiébré (M)
- 30 M. Curado (D)
- 99 Matteo Brunori (F)
Bench: G. Crespi, G. De Pieri, D. Bolsius, G. Gori, F. Gattoni, L. Lo Scalzo, T. Milanese, A. Oliveri, S. Perciun, M. Ricci, N. Rizzo, A. Chakir
Sampdoria 4-3-2-1
- 6 L. Henderson (M)
- 7 M. Cicconi (D)
- 9 T. Lauritsen (F)
- 11 T. Begić (M)
- 12 Andrey Krastev (G)
- 15 F. Delli Carri (D)
- 16 Y. Verschaeren (M)
- 25 A. Ferrari (D)
- 28 O. Abildgaard (M)
- 29 A. Di Pardo (D)
- 45 A. Makoumbou (M)
Bench: K. Diop, S. Gartenmann, Yann Karamoh, S. Massolo, K. Mbabu, L. Mezzotero, Federico Piermattei, G. Tutino, P. Vindahl
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Ascoli or draw | 1.29 | 72.6% | +2.1 pts |
| Double chance Sampdoria or draw | 1.68 | 56.0% | -1.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Ascoli | 1.52 | 61.2% | +2.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sampdoria | 2.40 | 38.8% | -2.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 74.3% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 50.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.12 | 29.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.66 | 55.8% | +0.2 pts |
| Ascoli over 1.5 team goals | 2.05 | 45.6% | +1.4 pts |
| Sampdoria over 1.5 team goals | 2.78 | 33.6% | -0.8 pts |
| Ascoli clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | +0.0 pts |
| Sampdoria clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.05 · 1-0 7.78 · 2-1 8.26 · 0-0 9.67 · 0-1 10.21
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-27 18:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).