Padova 2–0 Sudtirol
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.58–1.82.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Sudtirol to win (44%); it finished with Padova to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.6–1.8, shots 12–22 with 5–5 on target. Sudtirol got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 7) and Sudtirol held 62% of the ball. Sudtirol's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.8 xG despite 5 of 22 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Padova 3-5-2
- 5 M. Lovato (D)
- 6 G. Giunti (M)
- 8 P. Fusi (M)
- 9 L. Moro (F)
- 14 M. Pompetti (M)
- 21 E. Zuelli (M)
- 22 A. Sorrentino (G)
- 27 Alessandro Dellavalle (D)
- 34 M. Cocchi (M)
- 58 C. Pastina (D)
- 90 G. Artistico (F)
Bench: A. Capelli, L. Carissoni, F. Di Mariano, C. Faedo, N. Galazzi, D. Marcolini, L. Mouquet, A. Seghetti, F. Sgarbi, E. Silletti, K. Varas, M. Bortolussi
Sudtirol 3-4-2-1
- 3 D. Veroli (D)
- 4 R. Stivanello (D)
- 5 S. Tronchin (M)
- 11 Vasco Lopes (M)
- 14 A. Vasic (M)
- 22 A. Plizzari (G)
- 23 F. Davi (M)
- 46 D. Brik (M)
- 55 A. Giorgini (D)
- 79 S. Molina (M)
- 90 A. Okoro (F)
Bench: R. Burnete, S. Davì, M. Pellini, Fabio Rispoli, G. Stabile, F. Tait, Kevin Zeroli, L. Anghelè, Marco Iuliano, K. Mixtur, Elias Schroot, Rok Vadjunec
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Padova or draw | 1.29 | 72.8% | +3.7 pts |
| Double chance Sudtirol or draw | 1.65 | 56.8% | -3.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 70.4% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Padova | 1.52 | 61.5% | +4.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sudtirol | 2.43 | 38.5% | -4.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | 68.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 43.3% | -2.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.89 | 23.9% | -1.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.86 | 50.2% | -1.3 pts |
| Padova over 1.5 team goals | 2.23 | 41.6% | +2.3 pts |
| Sudtirol over 1.5 team goals | 3.29 | 28.3% | -4.3 pts |
| Padova clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +1.7 pts |
| Sudtirol clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.79 · 1-0 6.56 · 0-0 7.86 · 2-1 8.70 · 0-1 8.92
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-27 18:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 26 | Sudtirol | 3-0 | Padova |
| 01 Nov 25 | Padova | 1-1 | Sudtirol |