Vicenza Virtus 1–2 Modena
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.34–1.15.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Modena to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 45% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Modena created the better chances — the xG read 0.3–1.1 and the shot count agreed (6–10, 2–3 on target). Modena's finishing ran hot — 2 from 1.1 xG, 3 of 10 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 1–2 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Vicenza Virtus 3-5-2
- 5 R. Marchizza (D)
- 7 N. Rauti (F)
- 8 A. Bellemo (M)
- 10 M. Valoti (M)
- 16 R. Gagno (G)
- 21 T. Corazza (M)
- 23 N. Brighenti (D)
- 26 G. Pellizzari (M)
- 28 L. Caferri (M)
- 33 S. Merkaj (F)
- 66 A. Papetti (D)
Bench: F. Bagheria, M. Carraro, F. Costa, G. Moncini, C. Morra, A. Pietrelli, A. Rada, T. Sandon, R. Talarico, M. Vescovi, L. Zonta, Filippo Alessio
Modena 3-5-2
- 1 L. Chichizola (G)
- 6 S. Nador (D)
- 7 F. Zampano (M)
- 8 S. Santoro (M)
- 10 G. Caso (M)
- 11 A. Belotti (F)
- 20 B. Nieling (D)
- 23 F. Folino (D)
- 42 A. Bianco (M)
- 70 G. Ambrosino (F)
- 72 G. Olzer (M)
Bench: D. Adorni, Paulo Azzi, K. Bozhanaj, G. Brugman, A. Laidani, D. Montevago, W. Acquah, L. Bacchin, L. Consiglio, T. Egharevba, A. Imputato, Martino Odero
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Vicenza Virtus or draw | 1.76 | 53.4% | -1.2 pts |
| Double chance Modena or draw | 1.28 | 73.4% | +2.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.3% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Vicenza Virtus | 2.54 | 36.6% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Modena | 1.47 | 63.4% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 76.1% | -1.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 53.5% | -2.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.86 | 32.6% | -2.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.61 | 57.7% | -1.2 pts |
| Vicenza Virtus over 1.5 team goals | 2.70 | 34.6% | -1.9 pts |
| Modena over 1.5 team goals | 1.89 | 49.1% | -0.4 pts |
| Vicenza Virtus clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Modena clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.38 · 1-2 8.13 · 0-1 8.26 · 0-2 10.42 · 0-0 11.29
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-27 18:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).