Aberdeen 0–1 Falkirk
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.72–1.05.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Aberdeen to win (50%); it finished with Falkirk to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 23% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Aberdeen created the better chances — the xG read 1.7–1.1 and the shot count agreed (15–12, 5–4 on target). Aberdeen got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 10). Aberdeen's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.7 xG despite 5 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 0–1 flatters Falkirk — on chances created, Aberdeen shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.