Dundee 3–1 Kilmarnock
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–1; by chance quality the match ran 2.28–2.24.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Dundee to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 49% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 2.3–2.2, shots 15–15 with 5–3 on target. Kilmarnock's finishing let them down — 1 from 2.2 xG despite 3 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.