Heart Of Midlothian 2–2 Rangers
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.75–2.26.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Heart Of Midlothian to win (38%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 26% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Rangers created the better chances — the xG read 1.8–2.3, with the shot count roughly even (17–14, 6–6 on target). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Rangers shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.