Juve Stabia 0–1 Hellas Verona
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.85–1.35.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Juve Stabia to win (45%); it finished with Hellas Verona to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Hellas Verona created the better chances — the xG read 0.8–1.4, with the shot count roughly even (11–14, 3–4 on target). Juve Stabia's finishing let them down — 0 from 0.8 xG despite 3 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 0–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Juve Stabia 3-5-1-1
- 1 A. Vuković (G)
- 4 M. Baldi (D)
- 5 T. Battistella (M)
- 6 M. Bellich (D)
- 9 Antonio Di Nardo (F)
- 10 C. Pierobon (M)
- 25 T. Douglas (D)
- 30 Romeo Sandrucci (M)
- 33 G. Sibilli (M)
- 80 F. Artioli (M)
- 96 T. Maggioni (M)
Bench: K. Piscopo, D. Perin, S. Fernandes, J. Kumi, M. Ricciardi, D. Bettella, P. Boer, D. Buglio, L. Candellone, F. Gallea, N. Karić, Nicola Patanè
Hellas Verona 3-5-2
- 3 M. Frese (M)
- 4 G. Zappa (D)
- 5 A. Edmundsson (D)
- 14 D. Livramento (M)
- 19 S. Mulattieri (F)
- 24 A. Bernede (M)
- 28 T. Slotsager (D)
- 34 S. Perilli (G)
- 44 E. Iannoni (M)
- 79 K. Sezonienko (M)
- 81 C. Ekuban (F)
Bench: R. Akale, N. Calabrese, F. Cham, P. Dawidowicz, A. Harroui, G. Kastanos, A. Le Borgne, N. Leali, D. Mosquera, A. Sarr, N. Tagne
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Juve Stabia or draw | 1.52 | 61.6% | +2.0 pts |
| Double chance Hellas Verona or draw | 1.39 | 67.6% | -0.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 70.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Juve Stabia | 2.04 | 45.9% | +1.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Hellas Verona | 1.73 | 54.1% | -1.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 74.1% | -0.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 50.2% | -1.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.12 | 29.9% | -1.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.64 | 56.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Juve Stabia over 1.5 team goals | 2.52 | 37.0% | -0.0 pts |
| Hellas Verona over 1.5 team goals | 2.22 | 42.1% | -1.2 pts |
| Juve Stabia clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +1.8 pts |
| Hellas Verona clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | -1.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.97 · 0-1 8.48 · 1-2 8.98 · 1-0 9.34 · 0-0 9.65
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-28 18:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).