Pisa 3–3 Palermo
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–3; by chance quality the match ran 2.50–1.32.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Pisa to win (43%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 25% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Pisa created the better chances — the xG read 2.5–1.3, with the shot count roughly even (12–13, 6–5 on target). Palermo's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.3 xG, 5 of 13 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Pisa shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Pisa 3-4-2-1
- 2 R. Bozhinov (D)
- 3 S. Angori (D)
- 7 M. Léris (M)
- 8 F. Pittarello (F)
- 13 A. Primasso (D)
- 14 F. Loyola (M)
- 23 T. Marras (M)
- 29 O. Correia (M)
- 32 S. Moreo (M)
- 72 S. Zanon (M)
- 98 A. Confente (G)
Bench: G. Piccinini, S. Scuffet, İ. Vural, S. Canestrelli, Brando Bettazzi, A. Caracciolo, F. Coppola, D. Denoon, I. Ferrah, G. Leone, A. Petagna, E. Rao
Palermo 4-2-3-1
- 1 M. Perin (G)
- 3 T. Augello (D)
- 10 F. Ranocchia (M)
- 11 E. Gyasi (M)
- 13 M. Bani (D)
- 17 D. Johnsen (M)
- 20 J. Pohjanpalo (F)
- 24 N. Estévez (M)
- 27 N. Pierozzi (D)
- 29 P. Peda (D)
- 36 L. Mazzitelli (M)
Bench: P. Ceccaroni, Hernani, A. Bozzolan, T. Cassandro, M. Fortin, A. Gabrielloni, C. Gomes, G. Magnani, M. Nespola, J. Segre, D. Vavassori
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Pisa or draw | 1.39 | 67.5% | +1.9 pts |
| Double chance Palermo or draw | 1.54 | 60.8% | -2.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 71.7% | +0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Pisa | 1.70 | 54.8% | +3.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Palermo | 2.06 | 45.2% | -3.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 77.6% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55.6% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.66 | 35.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.54 | 60.2% | +0.0 pts |
| Pisa over 1.5 team goals | 2.04 | 45.8% | +1.7 pts |
| Palermo over 1.5 team goals | 2.26 | 41.3% | -1.3 pts |
| Pisa clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Palermo clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.26 · 2-1 8.82 · 1-0 9.79 · 1-2 10.05 · 0-1 10.64
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-28 17:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).