Metz 1–3 PAU
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–3; by chance quality the match ran 2.03–2.11.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 2–2.1, shots 18–9 with 5–5 on target. Metz held 69% of the ball. Metz's finishing let them down — 1 from 2 xG despite 5 of 18 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 1–3 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Metz 4-1-4-1
- 1 J. Fischer (G)
- 4 U. Mboula (D)
- 5 J. Ruiz (D)
- 8 J. Deminguet (M)
- 10 T. Savanier (M)
- 22 N. Mbala (F)
- 33 Abdourahmane Mbodj (M)
- 39 B. Song (M)
- 42 C. Devenish (D)
- 70 B. Sarr (D)
- 98 I. Mohamed (M)
Bench: A. Touré, H. Kadamani, M. Colin, A. Agne Ba, F. Miguel, B. Munongo, J. Pandore, Ibou Sané, P. Sy
PAU 5-3-2
- 1 B. Maubleu (G)
- 5 L. Rajot (M)
- 6 C. Fall (M)
- 7 H. Benali (F)
- 18 J. Sebas (F)
- 21 J. Benet (M)
- 23 A. Briançon (D)
- 29 G. Paquiez (D)
- 39 M. Tourraine (D)
- 88 A. Bamba (D)
- 97 A. Abdallah (D)
Bench: B. Brahimi, A. Dodote, L. Gadegbeku, A. Lefebvre, B. Leye, R. Baheng, T. Saettel, S. Basse, E. Salles
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Metz or draw | 1.30 | 72.1% | +1.0 pts |
| Double chance PAU or draw | 1.70 | 55.1% | +0.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.7% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Metz | 1.52 | 61.3% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — PAU | 2.40 | 38.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 73.8% | -2.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 51.0% | -3.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.16 | 29.5% | -3.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.68 | 55.4% | -2.1 pts |
| Metz over 1.5 team goals | 2.03 | 46.0% | -2.6 pts |
| PAU over 1.5 team goals | 2.78 | 33.4% | -2.2 pts |
| Metz clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.0 pts |
| PAU clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | +1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.46 · 1-0 7.94 · 2-1 8.29 · 0-1 10.36 · 2-0 10.42
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-30 18:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).