Ajax 1–0 AZ Alkmaar
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.70–1.27.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Ajax to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 45% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
AZ Alkmaar created the better chances — the xG read 0.7–1.3 and the shot count agreed (9–19, 2–5 on target). AZ Alkmaar got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 7). AZ Alkmaar's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.3 xG despite 5 of 19 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 1–0 flatters Ajax — on chances created, AZ Alkmaar shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.