Cremonese 2–0 Benevento
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 2.41–1.06.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Benevento to win (42%); it finished with Cremonese to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 28% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Cremonese created the better chances — the xG read 2.4–1.1, with the shot count roughly even (12–12, 3–4 on target). Benevento held 62% of the ball. Benevento's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.1 xG despite 4 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 2–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Cremonese 4-2-3-1
- 1 A. Fulignati (G)
- 2 M. Thorsby (M)
- 3 G. Pezzella (D)
- 5 S. Luperto (D)
- 6 F. Baschirotto (D)
- 8 Simone Lottici Tessadri (M)
- 14 T. Berti (M)
- 25 D. Lordkipanidze (M)
- 27 J. Vandeputte (M)
- 71 S. Elia (D)
- 90 F. Bonazzoli (F)
Bench: M. De Luca, M. Festa, M. Collocolo, D. Stückler, A. Grassi, A. Lickūnas, Adin Ličina, simone marsi, Fellipe Jack, M. Nasti, M. Đurić, F. Agazzi
Benevento 4-1-4-1
- 4 A. Prisco (M)
- 6 A. Siatounis (M)
- 8 M. Maita (M)
- 11 D. Lamesta (F)
- 15 C. Dalle Mura (D)
- 17 L. Sernicola (M)
- 23 P. Saio (D)
- 25 Raffaele Romano (D)
- 26 G. Vannucchi (G)
- 29 D. Okereke (M)
- 32 G. Mignani (D)
Bench: P. Beruatto, L. Caldirola, L. Cherubini, M. Esposito, Mattia Mannini, F. Salvemini, E. Schimmenti, S. Scognamillo, P. Simonetti, A. Talia, M. Tumminello, S. Verdi
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Cremonese or draw | 1.45 | 64.6% | -0.6 pts |
| Double chance Benevento or draw | 1.43 | 65.3% | +0.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 70.2% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Cremonese | 1.89 | 49.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Benevento | 1.85 | 50.5% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 71.8% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.99 | 47.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.43 | 27.2% | -0.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 53.9% | -0.5 pts |
| Cremonese over 1.5 team goals | 2.52 | 37.1% | -1.0 pts |
| Benevento over 1.5 team goals | 2.49 | 37.5% | +0.4 pts |
| Cremonese clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | -1.4 pts |
| Benevento clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.88 · 0-1 8.05 · 1-0 8.31 · 0-0 8.93 · 1-2 9.61
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-31 13:58 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).