Guingamp 3–0 Saint Etienne
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.50–1.28.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.5–1.3, shots 11–21 with 4–3 on target. Saint Etienne got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 5) and Saint Etienne held 65% of the ball. Guingamp's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.5 xG, 4 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Guingamp 4-4-2
- 3 J. Matumona (D)
- 4 D. Louiserre (M)
- 5 T. Ollila (D)
- 7 D. Gomis (D)
- 10 A. Hemia (M)
- 11 T. Averlant (F)
- 16 Adrián Ortolá (G)
- 18 S. Kielt (F)
- 20 S. Ben Brahim (M)
- 25 T. Ducrocq (M)
- 36 A. Demouchy (D)
Bench: J. Chamakh, J. Dianganga, N. Fondja, A. Samoura, F. Da Silva, J. Matondo, B. Bokangu, T. Bartouche, T. Ahile
Saint Etienne 4-2-3-1
- 1 Mamour Ndiaye (G)
- 6 M. Bernauer (M)
- 8 T. Ballo (M)
- 10 J. Breum (M)
- 13 João Ferreira (D)
- 14 Á. Csongvai (M)
- 18 S. Nair (D)
- 20 A. Boakye (M)
- 22 Z. Davitashvili (F)
- 23 K. Pedro (D)
- 26 J. Le Cardinal (D)
Bench: I. Cardona, E. Dhaoui, N. El Jamali, B. Old, Chico Lamba, M. Jaber, L. Lavallée, J. Duffus, N. Kasia Nkondo
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Guingamp or draw | 1.91 | 48.9% | -1.4 pts |
| Double chance Saint Etienne or draw | 1.22 | 76.7% | +1.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 74.3% | +0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Guingamp | 2.96 | 31.5% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Saint Etienne | 1.36 | 68.5% | +1.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 75.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 52.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.93 | 31.8% | -1.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 54.8% | -1.0 pts |
| Guingamp over 1.5 team goals | 3.07 | 30.4% | -2.0 pts |
| Saint Etienne over 1.5 team goals | 1.81 | 51.4% | +0.5 pts |
| Guingamp clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Saint Etienne clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.85 · 0-1 7.58 · 1-2 7.95 · 0-2 9.22 · 0-0 11.60
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-31 18:56 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).