Moreirense 2–1 Estrela
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.52–0.74.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Estrela to win (56%); it finished with Moreirense to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 18% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.5–0.7, shots 11–11 with 4–1 on target. Estrela got into the box far more often (9 shots inside it to 3). Moreirense's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.5 xG, 4 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.