AD Ceuta FC 0–2 Sporting Gijon
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.09–2.62.
The brain read
Sporting Gijon created the better chances — the xG read 1.1–2.6 and the shot count agreed (11–20, 5–8 on target). Sporting Gijon got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 7). AD Ceuta FC's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.1 xG despite 5 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 0–2 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3
- 2 Toni Abad (D)
- 5 Adrián Lapeña (D)
- 6 Carlos Hernández (D)
- 8 Kuki (F)
- 10 Marino Illescas (M)
- 11 Cedric Teguia (F)
- 13 Guille Vallejo (G)
- 14 Y. Bodiger (M)
- 16 Redru (D)
- 20 Álex Meléndez (M)
- 22 K. Koné (F)
Bench: O. Sadik, E. Sevikyan, Alejandro Camacho Ramírez, Abraham Bueno Espinosa, Arick Betancourt, Albert Caparrós, Jordi Escobar, Joaquín, Pedro López, José Matos, A. Tuhami, Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro
Sporting Gijon 3-5-2
- 1 Rubén Yáñez (G)
- 2 Guille Rosas (M)
- 3 Pablo García (M)
- 7 Gaspar Campos (M)
- 14 Álex Corredera (M)
- 16 A. Sarco (F)
- 19 J. Otero (F)
- 22 Hugo Guillamón (M)
- 23 Jorge Sáenz (D)
- 24 Aimar Duñabeitia (D)
- 44 Andrés Cuenca (D)
Bench: M. Loum, Arana, M. Conde, E. Gularte, Nacho Martín, Iker Martínez, Diego Matabuena Álvarez, Enol Prendes, B. Rubio, Diego Sánchez, Pablo Vázquez
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance AD Ceuta FC or draw | 1.39 | 67.2% | +3.6 pts |
| Double chance Sporting Gijon or draw | 1.54 | 60.7% | -3.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 72.1% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — AD Ceuta FC | 1.72 | 54.5% | +5.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sporting Gijon | 2.06 | 45.5% | -5.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 73.1% | -2.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 49.9% | -2.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.21 | 29.2% | -2.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.68 | 55.2% | -1.6 pts |
| AD Ceuta FC over 1.5 team goals | 2.24 | 41.7% | +0.8 pts |
| Sporting Gijon over 1.5 team goals | 2.52 | 37.1% | -3.7 pts |
| AD Ceuta FC clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +2.7 pts |
| Sporting Gijon clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.91 · 1-0 7.89 · 2-1 8.59 · 0-1 8.72 · 1-2 9.58
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-01 15:05 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May 26 | Sporting Gijon | 1-2 | AD Ceuta FC |
| 23 Aug 25 | AD Ceuta FC | 0-1 | Sporting Gijon |