Arezzo 0–0 Ascoli
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.95–0.62.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Ascoli to win (47%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.9–0.6, shots 5–6 with 2–2 on target. Ascoli held 73% of the ball. A 0–0 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Arezzo 4-1-4-1
- 4 M. Coppolaro (D)
- 5 J. Illanes (D)
- 6 A. Renzi (D)
- 8 S. Mawuli (M)
- 9 A. Cerri (F)
- 14 A. Nunziante (G)
- 17 A. Ioniţă (M)
- 21 C. Tavernelli (M)
- 30 A. Arena (M)
- 37 S. Righetti (D)
- 78 Gennaro Iaccarino (M)
Bench: P. Cianci, Gianmarco Ferrari, Giuseppe Kevin Leone, L. Mancuso, Aleandro Manes, M. Mena, M. Olivieri, E. Pattarello, Mattia Sala, A. Seculin, F. Serban, A. Cagnano
Ascoli 4-2-3-1
- 1 S. Vitale (G)
- 4 S. Damiani (M)
- 7 A. Silipo (M)
- 8 G. Corradini (M)
- 9 A. Chakir (F)
- 13 G. Acampora (M)
- 15 S. D'Uffizi (M)
- 19 A. Guiébré (D)
- 30 M. Curado (D)
- 32 F. Gattoni (D)
- 33 N. Rizzo (D)
Bench: Matteo Brunori, D. Bolsius, G. Crespi, G. De Pieri, G. Gori, L. Lo Scalzo, T. Milanese, M. Nicoletti, A. Oliveri, S. Perciun, M. Ricci, L. Venuti
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Arezzo or draw | 1.71 | 54.9% | -8.3 pts |
| Double chance Ascoli or draw | 1.29 | 72.7% | +7.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.4% | +0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Arezzo | 2.42 | 38.5% | -10.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Ascoli | 1.52 | 61.5% | +10.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 74.3% | +4.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.87 | 50.7% | +4.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.09 | 30.2% | +4.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 54.8% | +2.8 pts |
| Arezzo over 1.5 team goals | 2.84 | 32.9% | -3.1 pts |
| Ascoli over 1.5 team goals | 2.04 | 45.7% | +9.0 pts |
| Arezzo clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Ascoli clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +2.5 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.27 · 0-1 7.52 · 1-2 8.30 · 0-0 10.04 · 1-0 10.15
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-01 13:56 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).