Burgos 1–1 Castellón
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.38–0.30.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.4–0.3, shots 9–5 with 4–1 on target. Burgos got into the box far more often (5 shots inside it to 1). A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Burgos 4-4-2
- 2 Álex (D)
- 4 P. Galdames (M)
- 8 Grego (D)
- 9 Álex Forés (F)
- 12 Unai Vencedor (M)
- 13 Ander Cantero (G)
- 15 Oier Luengo (D)
- 16 Curro Sánchez (F)
- 19 Javi Llabrés (M)
- 22 Brais Martínez (D)
- 23 Alberto Dadie (M)
Bench: Mario Cantero, K. Appin, Marcelo Expósito, Fermin Garcia, Sergio González, José Gragera, Bruno Iribarne, I. Martinez, Víctor Mollejo, Irian Ribas, Ignasi Vilarrasa, Saúl del Cerro
Castellón 4-4-2
- 4 A. Sienra (D)
- 5 Alberto Jiménez (D)
- 6 M. Orozco (M)
- 8 Barri (M)
- 10 Israel Suero (M)
- 13 R. Matthys (G)
- 14 Iñigo Córdoba (M)
- 16 A. Jakobsen (F)
- 18 Pablo Santiago (D)
- 21 Álvaro Martín (F)
- 22 J. Mellot (D)
Bench: F. Ceccherini, Martín Conde, Rodrigo Miguel Ferreira Rêgo, A. Gala, Varo García, I. Kostis, D. Muale Nzanza, Juanjo Nieto, A. Saipi, Raúl Sánchez, J. Vlak, Lucas Alcázar
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Burgos or draw | 1.75 | 53.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Double chance Castellón or draw | 1.27 | 73.4% | +0.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Burgos | 2.47 | 37.8% | +0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Castellón | 1.50 | 62.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 74.9% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 51.1% | -1.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.06 | 30.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 55.7% | -0.7 pts |
| Burgos over 1.5 team goals | 2.76 | 33.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Castellón over 1.5 team goals | 2.01 | 46.5% | -1.3 pts |
| Burgos clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.0 pts |
| Castellón clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.09 · 0-1 7.32 · 1-2 8.06 · 0-2 9.77 · 1-0 10.02
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-01 17:25 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 26 | Castellón | 3-1 | Burgos |
| 10 Nov 25 | Burgos | 0-0 | Castellón |