Groningen 2–3 Sparta Rotterdam
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–3; by chance quality the match ran 2.18–2.48.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 42% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 2.2–2.5, shots 20–8 with 10–4 on target. Groningen got into the box far more often (14 shots inside it to 6). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–3 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.