Hellas Verona 3–0 Carrarese
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.17–0.93.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Hellas Verona to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 46% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.2–0.9, shots 13–16 with 5–5 on target. Hellas Verona's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.2 xG, 5 of 13 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Hellas Verona 4-2-3-1
- 3 M. Frese (D)
- 4 G. Zappa (D)
- 5 A. Edmundsson (D)
- 9 A. Sarr (M)
- 17 A. Le Borgne (M)
- 21 A. Harroui (M)
- 24 A. Bernede (M)
- 25 D. Mosquera (F)
- 28 T. Slotsager (D)
- 34 S. Perilli (G)
- 79 K. Sezonienko (M)
Bench: F. Cham, R. Akale, N. Leali, N. Tagne, N. Calabrese, P. Dawidowicz, E. Iannoni, N. Lella, G. Kastanos, D. Livramento, S. Mulattieri, C. Ekuban
Carrarese 3-5-2
- 1 S. Pizzignacco (G)
- 6 F. Oliana (D)
- 9 F. Abiuso (F)
- 13 F. Ruggeri (D)
- 17 L. Topalović (M)
- 18 Nicolás Schiavi (M)
- 23 M. Braunöder (M)
- 33 F. Reale (D)
- 73 J. Rouhi (M)
- 77 G. Parlanti (M)
- 91 G. Marconi (F)
Bench: Tommaso Guercio, T. Macchioni, Gonçalo Esteves, L. Romani, J. Martini, Y. Khafi, N. Cudrig, T. Rubino, M. Cissé, M. Finotto, N. Ravaglia, G. Garofani
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Hellas Verona or draw | 1.14 | 82.1% | -3.0 pts |
| Double chance Carrarese or draw | 2.28 | 41.0% | +4.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.22 | 76.9% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Hellas Verona | 1.22 | 76.2% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Carrarese | 3.91 | 23.8% | +4.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 76.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 53.9% | -0.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.84 | 32.9% | -1.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53.1% | +2.4 pts |
| Hellas Verona over 1.5 team goals | 1.62 | 57.5% | -1.8 pts |
| Carrarese over 1.5 team goals | 3.56 | 26.2% | +2.8 pts |
| Hellas Verona clean sheet | 2.38 | 39.1% | +1.6 pts |
| Carrarese clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | +1.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 7.12 · 1-1 7.23 · 2-1 7.72 · 2-0 7.74 · 0-0 11.88
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-01 16:05 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).