Telstar 4–2 Utrecht
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–2; by chance quality the match ran 2.49–1.31.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Utrecht to win (43%); it finished with Telstar to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 33% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Telstar created the better chances — the xG read 2.5–1.3 and the shot count agreed (16–15, 7–5 on target). Utrecht held 65% of the ball. Telstar's finishing ran hot — 4 from 2.5 xG, 7 of 16 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 4–2 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.