Mallorca 2–1 Cadiz
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 3.37–0.56.
The brain read
Mallorca created the better chances — the xG read 3.4–0.6 and the shot count agreed (23–10, 6–3 on target). Mallorca got into the box far more often (17 shots inside it to 5) and Mallorca held 64% of the ball. Mallorca's finishing let them down — 2 from 3.4 xG despite 6 of 23 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 2–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Mallorca 4-4-2
- 1 Arnau Tenas (G)
- 5 Alberto Moreno (D)
- 6 Antonio Sánchez (D)
- 7 Álex Sala (M)
- 10 Darder (M)
- 11 Zito Luvumbo (M)
- 18 Fuentes (F)
- 20 Pablo Torre (F)
- 21 Raíllo (D)
- 24 M. Valjent (D)
- 33 Adrian Liso (M)
Bench: M. Calatayud, A. Buksa, Josep Cerdà, Iván Cuéllar, Guille Fernández, J. Garcia, Toni Lato, L. Orejuela, Abdón Prats, Arnau Puigmal, A. Souhmahoro, L. Bergström
Cadiz 4-4-2
- 3 Sergio Arribas (D)
- 4 Javi Castro (D)
- 9 Álvaro García (F)
- 13 Jokin Ezkieta (G)
- 14 B. Kovačević (D)
- 16 Antonio Cordero (M)
- 20 Borja Vazquez (F)
- 23 Damián Rodríguez (M)
- 24 Ibon Sánchez (M)
- 28 D. A. Zarate Hidalgo (M)
- 31 N. Ukwuije (D)
Bench: M. Doué, J. Diaz Peregrina, Manu Fernández, David Gil, Cristian Gutiérrez, Urko Izeta, A. Moueffek, Javi Ontiveros, K. Toibibou, E. Aghama, Beñat de Jesús, Ruben Dominguez
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Mallorca or draw | 1.10 | 85.1% | +0.2 pts |
| Double chance Cadiz or draw | 2.59 | 36.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.20 | 78.5% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Mallorca | 1.15 | 81.0% | +0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Cadiz | 4.90 | 19.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 75.6% | +2.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 52.7% | +3.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 31.2% | +2.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.89 | 48.9% | +2.3 pts |
| Mallorca over 1.5 team goals | 1.60 | 58.3% | +1.5 pts |
| Cadiz over 1.5 team goals | 4.38 | 21.2% | +0.8 pts |
| Mallorca clean sheet | 2.00 | 46.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Cadiz clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | -1.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 6.09 · 2-0 6.53 · 2-1 7.49 · 1-1 7.50 · 3-0 9.62
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-02 19:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).