Valladolid 4–3 Leganes
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–3; by chance quality the match ran 2.90–2.28.
The brain read
The xG read 2.9–2.3 in Valladolid's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 17–21 overall and 10–10 on target went Leganes's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Valladolid's finishing ran hot — 4 from 2.9 xG, 10 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Valladolid 4-3-3
- 1 Álvaro Aceves (G)
- 8 T. Ojeda (M)
- 12 Miguel Rubio (D)
- 14 Iván Alejo (D)
- 15 Pablo Tomeo (D)
- 19 Adrian Arnuncio (F)
- 21 J. Ponceau (M)
- 23 T. Abed (F)
- 24 S. Jurić (M)
- 27 Iván Garriel (D)
- 30 Víctor Fernández (F)
Bench: Victor Barberá, Yeray Cabanzón, Clerc, Tomás Fernández Sabatini, M. Lachuer, Dani Martín, Ramón Martínez, Trilli, Dani Pérez, Luis Chacón, R. Duiven, Homam Ahmed
Leganes 4-4-2
- 1 Raúl Fernández (G)
- 3 Javi Montero (D)
- 4 Rubén Pulido (D)
- 7 Rubén Peña (D)
- 8 Y. Kechta (M)
- 9 Álex Millán (F)
- 14 Dani Rodríguez (M)
- 15 Enric Franquesa (D)
- 17 Ismaël Gharbi (F)
- 22 Álex Sancris (M)
- 24 A. Diawara (M)
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Valladolid or draw | 1.28 | 73.5% | -4.3 pts |
| Double chance Leganes or draw | 1.74 | 54.2% | +6.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 72.3% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Valladolid | 1.47 | 63.4% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Leganes | 2.54 | 36.6% | +6.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.34 | 70.1% | -1.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45.3% | -2.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.72 | 25.2% | -2.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.84 | 50.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Valladolid over 1.5 team goals | 2.15 | 43.4% | -5.2 pts |
| Leganes over 1.5 team goals | 3.21 | 28.9% | +2.2 pts |
| Valladolid clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | -3.6 pts |
| Leganes clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +2.6 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.94 · 1-0 6.46 · 2-1 8.08 · 0-0 8.45 · 2-0 8.92
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-02 17:25 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 26 | Valladolid | 3-2 | Leganes |
| 11 Jan 26 | Leganes | 3-0 | Valladolid |