Fixture · Primeira Liga · Sat 07 Nov 2026, 18:00 GMT
Alverca
v Casa Pia
The model's read
Alverca
45%
match result
Draw
28%
match result
Casa Pia
27%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Alverca or draw | 73.1% |
| Double chance Casa Pia or draw | 55.1% |
| Double chance either team | 71.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% |
| Alverca over 1.5 team goals | 44.0% |
| Casa Pia over 1.5 team goals | 30.4% |
| Alverca clean sheet | 33.0% |
| Casa Pia clean sheet | 22.4% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.5% · 1-0 9.8% · 2-1 9.2% · 0-0 8.6% · 2-0 8.3%
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Recent form
Alverca
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov | L | 0-1 | Benfica (A) | 0.6 - 1.7 |
| 24 Oct | L | 0-1 | Arouca (H) | 0.4 - 2.1 |
| 12 Oct | W | 4-1 | Famalicao (A) | 2.9 - 0.4 |
| 19 Sep | W | 1-0 | Rio Ave (H) | 3.3 - 0.3 |
| 12 Sep | W | 3-1 | Nacional (A) | 1.2 - 2.2 |
| 05 Sep | L | 1-2 | SC Braga (H) | 1.1 - 2.3 |
Casa Pia
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct | L | 0-2 | Sporting CP (H) | 0.4 - 2.7 |
| 24 Oct | W | 2-0 | Estrela (A) | 0.8 - 1.7 |
| 10 Oct | L | 0-1 | Santa Clara (H) | 0.5 - 0.7 |
| 20 Sep | W | 2-1 | Estoril (A) | 2.2 - 0.9 |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-4 | FC Porto (H) | 1.6 - 2.6 |
| 06 Sep | D | 0-0 | Vitória SC (A) | 0.2 - 2.5 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Alverca
+0.10
xG diff/game · 1.58 for, 1.48 against
Casa Pia
-0.72
xG diff/game · 0.91 for, 1.63 against
Head to head
No meetings on record.