Fixture · Ligue 1 · Sat 07 Nov 2026, 19:45 GMT
Paris Saint Germain
v Estac Troyes
The model's read
Paris Saint Germain
79%
match result
Draw
15%
match result
Estac Troyes
6%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw | 94.2% |
| Double chance Estac Troyes or draw | 20.6% |
| Double chance either team | 85.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.8% |
| Both teams to score | 42.7% |
| Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 team goals | 73.1% |
| Estac Troyes over 1.5 team goals | 12.4% |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 54.5% |
| Estac Troyes clean sheet | 7.5% |
Most likely scorelines: 2-0 13.7% · 3-0 11.8% · 1-0 9.9% · 2-1 8.3% · 4-0 7.7%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Paris Saint Germain
- Paris Saint Germain have won their last 6 league games.
- Paris Saint Germain have averaged 2.0 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Players in form
- M. Safonov has made 29 saves in 9 league games this season.
- Ferran Torres has scored 4 goals in 9 league games this season.
- A. Hakimi has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
- P. Beach has made 15 saves in 9 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Paris Saint Germain
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct | W | 5-1 | Le Havre (A) | 3.1 - 1.9 |
| 26 Oct | W | 2-0 | Lyon (H) | 1.0 - 0.7 |
| 20 Oct | W | 4-2 | Barcelona (H) | 3.8 - 2.2 |
| 17 Oct | W | 3-1 | Strasbourg (A) | 2.7 - 1.0 |
| 14 Oct | W | 4-2 | Manchester City (A) | 1.9 - 2.6 |
| 10 Oct | W | 3-1 | Le Mans (H) | 4.2 - 1.6 |
Estac Troyes
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | W | 2-0 | Le Mans (H) | 1.8 - 0.3 |
| 25 Oct | D | 0-0 | Toulouse (A) | 0.4 - 0.7 |
| 17 Oct | L | 1-3 | Lens (H) | 0.9 - 1.6 |
| 11 Oct | L | 0-2 | Marseille (H) | 1.2 - 0.5 |
| 19 Sep | L | 0-2 | Angers (A) | 1.0 - 2.2 |
| 13 Sep | L | 0-2 | Lille (A) | 0.4 - 1.6 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Paris Saint Germain
+1.04
xG diff/game · 2.15 for, 1.10 against
Estac Troyes
-0.08
xG diff/game · 1.24 for, 1.32 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 2.222 | 21–10 | WWWWW |
| Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 0.889 | 7–16 | WDLLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | home | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 2-0-1 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1 |
| Estac Troyes | away | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 1-1-2 | 0.5 / 1.3 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Paris Saint Germain 9 wins, 1 draws, Estac Troyes 0 wins — 4.1 goals a game on average.
Match-by-match detail predates the fixtures this site tracks; the summary above comes from the head-to-head archive.