Fixture · Eredivisie · Sun 08 Nov 2026, 15:45 GMT
AZ Alkmaar
v Groningen
The model's read
AZ Alkmaar
45%
match result
Draw
24%
match result
Groningen
31%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance AZ Alkmaar or draw | 68.8% |
| Double chance Groningen or draw | 55.0% |
| Double chance either team | 76.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.4% |
| Both teams to score | 68.7% |
| AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 team goals | 57.2% |
| Groningen over 1.5 team goals | 47.0% |
| AZ Alkmaar clean sheet | 20.5% |
| Groningen clean sheet | 14.7% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 10.1% · 2-1 8.8% · 1-2 7.2% · 2-2 7.0% · 3-1 5.6%
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — AZ Alkmaar: another match 3d before (2026-11-05).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
AZ Alkmaar
- AZ Alkmaar are winless in their last 4 league games (D1 L3).
Groningen
- Groningen are winless in their last 3 league games (D1 L2).
- Both teams have scored in each of Groningen's last 4 league games.
Recent form
AZ Alkmaar
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | L | 0-1 | Ajax (A) | 1.3 - 0.7 |
| 25 Oct | L | 0-2 | Twente (H) | 1.3 - 2.1 |
| 22 Oct | W | 4-0 | Ararat-Armenia (A) | 1.7 - 0.4 |
| 18 Oct | D | 2-2 | Cambuur (A) | 1.6 - 1.5 |
| 15 Oct | W | 2-1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva (H) | 2.6 - 1.0 |
| 10 Oct | L | 0-2 | Feyenoord (A) | 1.0 - 2.2 |
Groningen
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov | L | 2-3 | Sparta Rotterdam (H) | 2.2 - 2.5 |
| 25 Oct | D | 2-2 | NEC Nijmegen (A) | 1.5 - 1.9 |
| 18 Oct | L | 2-5 | Ajax (H) | 2.3 - 3.0 |
| 11 Oct | W | 5-1 | Excelsior (A) | 2.5 - 1.8 |
| 18 Sep | W | 3-0 | PEC Zwolle (H) | 1.4 - 0.4 |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | GO Ahead Eagles (A) | 0.2 - 2.2 |
Chance quality, most recent season
AZ Alkmaar
+0.28
xG diff/game · 1.57 for, 1.29 against
Groningen
-0.39
xG diff/game · 1.64 for, 2.02 against
Head to head
No meetings on record.