Fixture · Primeira Liga · Sun 08 Nov 2026, 20:30 GMT
Estrela
v Benfica
The model's read
Estrela
18%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Benfica
56%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Estrela or draw | 44.1% |
| Double chance Benfica or draw | 81.9% |
| Double chance either team | 74.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% |
| Estrela over 1.5 team goals | 22.3% |
| Benfica over 1.5 team goals | 51.3% |
| Estrela clean sheet | 17.9% |
| Benfica clean sheet | 41.1% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.4% · 0-1 11.6% · 0-2 10.9% · 1-2 9.7% · 0-0 8.5%
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Estrela
- Estrela have lost their last 4 league games.
- Estrela are winless in their last 5 league games (D1 L4).
- Estrela have conceded in each of their last 7 league games.
Benfica
- Benfica have won their last 3 league games.
Recent form
Estrela
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | L | 1-2 | Moreirense (A) | 0.7 - 0.5 |
| 24 Oct | L | 0-2 | Casa Pia (H) | 1.7 - 0.8 |
| 11 Oct | L | 0-1 | Arouca (A) | 1.5 - 0.8 |
| 20 Sep | L | 0-2 | Academico Viseu (H) | — |
| 14 Sep | D | 3-3 | Rio Ave (A) | 1.9 - 1.2 |
| 10 Sep | W | 2-1 | SC Braga (H) | 0.6 - 0.6 |
Benfica
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Nov | W | 1-0 | Alverca (H) | 1.7 - 0.6 |
| 26 Oct | W | 2-1 | Santa Clara (A) | 1.8 - 1.6 |
| 22 Oct | W | 4-1 | Omonia Nicosia (A) | 3.2 - 0.9 |
| 15 Oct | W | 4-1 | Celtic (H) | 2.8 - 1.3 |
| 11 Oct | W | 2-0 | Vitória SC (H) | 2.8 - 0.5 |
| 20 Sep | L | 1-3 | FC Porto (A) | 0.8 - 1.3 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Estrela
+0.26
xG diff/game · 1.22 for, 0.96 against
Benfica
+1.30
xG diff/game · 2.05 for, 0.75 against
Head to head
No meetings on record.