Fixture · Ligue 1 · Sun 08 Nov 2026, 19:45 GMT
Lens
v Marseille
The model's read
Lens
54%
match result
Draw
23%
match result
Marseille
22%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Lens or draw | 77.6% |
| Double chance Marseille or draw | 45.6% |
| Double chance either team | 76.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.0% |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% |
| Lens over 1.5 team goals | 60.5% |
| Marseille over 1.5 team goals | 36.0% |
| Lens clean sheet | 28.3% |
| Marseille clean sheet | 13.0% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 10.4% · 2-1 9.7% · 2-0 7.6% · 3-1 6.6% · 1-0 6.5%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Marseille: another match 3d before (2026-11-05).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Lens
- Lens have conceded in each of their last 9 league games.
Marseille
- Marseille have won their last 4 league games.
- Both teams scored in only 1 of Marseille's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- R. Risser has made 30 saves in 9 league games this season.
- F. Thauvin has 4 goals and 7 assists in 9 league games this season.
- M. Udol has scored 2 goals in 8 league games this season.
- J. de Lange has made 36 saves in 9 league games this season.
- A. Gouiri has 6 goals and 3 assists in 9 league games this season.
- H. Abdelli has scored 3 goals in 9 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Lens
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct | L | 0-1 | Lille (A) | 0.2 - 1.8 |
| 24 Oct | W | 2-1 | Paris FC (H) | 0.9 - 0.4 |
| 21 Oct | L | 0-3 | Club Brugge KV (A) | 2.1 - 2.5 |
| 17 Oct | W | 3-1 | Estac Troyes (A) | 1.6 - 0.9 |
| 13 Oct | L | 0-2 | Sporting CP (H) | 1.8 - 1.7 |
| 09 Oct | W | 2-1 | Lyon (H) | 1.4 - 1.0 |
Marseille
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov | W | 2-0 | Toulouse (H) | 1.1 - 1.6 |
| 25 Oct | W | 4-3 | Le Havre (H) | 1.6 - 3.1 |
| 22 Oct | L | 0-1 | Sturm Graz (A) | 0.7 - 1.5 |
| 18 Oct | W | 5-2 | Angers (A) | 2.8 - 2.1 |
| 15 Oct | L | 0-1 | Olympiakos Piraeus (H) | 0.9 - 0.6 |
| 11 Oct | W | 2-0 | Estac Troyes (A) | 0.5 - 1.2 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Lens
+0.22
xG diff/game · 1.73 for, 1.51 against
Marseille
-0.38
xG diff/game · 1.48 for, 1.85 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 1.444 | 16–13 | LWWWL |
| Marseille | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 1.667 | 20–13 | WWWWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | home | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 3-0-1 | 2.3 / 1.3 | 0 |
| Marseille | away | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 2-0-2 | 1.8 / 1.3 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Lens 6 wins, 0 draws, Marseille 4 wins — 2.7 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 26 | Marseille | 3-1 | Lens |
| 25 Oct 25 | Lens | 2-1 | Marseille |