Fixture · Eredivisie · Sun 08 Nov 2026, 13:30 GMT
Twente
v Ajax
The model's read
Twente
58%
match result
Draw
21%
match result
Ajax
21%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Twente or draw | 78.8% |
| Double chance Ajax or draw | 42.4% |
| Double chance either team | 78.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.2% |
| Both teams to score | 68.1% |
| Twente over 1.5 team goals | 67.1% |
| Ajax over 1.5 team goals | 39.9% |
| Twente clean sheet | 25.3% |
| Ajax clean sheet | 9.9% |
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 9.2% · 1-1 8.8% · 3-1 7.1% · 2-0 6.7% · 2-2 6.3%
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Ajax
- Ajax have won their last 3 league games.
- Ajax are unbeaten in their last 7 league games (W5 D2).
Recent form
Twente
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov | W | 9-0 | Excelsior (A) | 6.3 - 0.0 |
| 25 Oct | W | 2-0 | AZ Alkmaar (A) | 2.1 - 1.3 |
| 18 Oct | L | 1-2 | Utrecht (H) | 1.4 - 1.2 |
| 10 Oct | D | 1-1 | Fortuna Sittard (A) | 1.2 - 0.9 |
| 20 Sep | W | 3-2 | PSV Eindhoven (H) | 2.4 - 1.0 |
| 12 Sep | W | 2-0 | ADO Den Haag (H) | 2.8 - 0.5 |
Ajax
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | W | 1-0 | AZ Alkmaar (H) | 0.7 - 1.3 |
| 25 Oct | W | 2-1 | Sparta Rotterdam (A) | 1.4 - 0.9 |
| 18 Oct | W | 5-2 | Groningen (A) | 3.0 - 2.3 |
| 10 Oct | D | 1-1 | NEC Nijmegen (H) | 1.9 - 1.1 |
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | Excelsior (H) | 2.5 - 0.8 |
| 15 Sep | W | 5-1 | Willem II (H) | 3.8 - 1.6 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Twente
+1.71
xG diff/game · 2.53 for, 0.83 against
Ajax
+1.02
xG diff/game · 2.43 for, 1.41 against
Head to head
No meetings on record.