Picks · strand · season 2026/27

Daily Draw

Nothing on this page is a bet, and nothing here is advice. Every pick is chosen by the rule below, logged before kick-off, settled in public. Stakes are an imaginary £10; £0 has ever been staked. Three seasons of our own testing found no betting profit; the fair expectation for this strand is a paper loss over time. That expectation, printed here, is the point.

Record

6-13-0

won-lost-push/void

Paper P/L

£+54.69

imaginary £10 a pick, £0 staked

CLV

-2.2%

beat the close 37% of 19

Run

0 / 2

current / best this season

The rule, in full

Nobody backs the draw. Among 1X2 draws that pass the pick test and are priced 3.00 or longer, the model’s likeliest draw of the day. Value-gated since 23 Aug 2026, so most days it shows nothing rather than a draw with no edge. The draw is the model’s best-calibrated market, and that is calibration, not an edge: bookmakers price draws tightly. Since the 17 Oct 2026 model change the model finds fewer draws with value, so expect more empty days.

The exit rule (every live strand, printed 17 Oct 2026): over its last 30 settled picks logged since 17 Oct 2026, beat the closing price under 40% of the time with an average CLV below zero and it retires at the next Monday review. Rolling. Win or retire — the run it is on has nothing to do with it.
Where it stands: Collecting: 2 of the 30 settled picks since 17 Oct 2026 are in. Nothing can be judged yet.

The curve, honestly

Cumulative paper P/L at the imaginary £10, every settled pick, losses in. It stays up when it falls.

Open

No open pick. An empty day stays empty.

Every settled pick

19 settled · wins and losses alike · nothing removed.

Day	Fixture	Pick	Odds	Result	Score	CLV
2026-11-01	Como v Venezia	the draw	5.70	LOST	1-0	-1.6%
2026-10-24	Lazio v Parma	the draw	4.39	LOST	2-1	-1.4%
2026-10-17	West Brom v Blackburn	the draw	3.51	LOST	3-2	+0.1%
2026-10-14	Lincoln v West Ham	the draw	4.05	LOST	0-6	+6.1%
2026-10-13	Burnley v Charlton	the draw	3.83	WON	2-2	-1.6%
2026-10-11	Cagliari v Juventus	the draw	3.90	WON	1-1	+1.5%
2026-10-10	Lille v Le Havre	the draw	4.61	LOST	1-0	-1.4%
2026-10-09	West Ham v QPR	the draw	4.28	WON	1-1	-5.0%
2026-09-20	Norwich v Bolton	the draw	4.78	LOST	3-4	+0.0%
2026-09-19	Athletic Club v Alaves	the draw	3.74	WON	0-0	-5.6%
2026-09-15	Middlesbrough v Millwall	the draw	4.35	WON	2-2	-5.4%
2026-09-13	Napoli v Bologna	the draw	3.60	LOST	1-0	+1.5%
2026-09-12	Athletic Club v Elche	the draw	4.37	WON	1-1	-9.2%
2026-09-05	Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin	the draw	4.85	LOST	4-0	-10.1%
2026-09-04	Lyon v Auxerre	the draw	4.29	LOST	3-1	-8.1%
2026-08-29	Middlesbrough v West Brom	the draw	3.73	LOST	3-1	-7.5%
2026-08-24	Bologna v Lazio	the draw	3.20	LOST	0-1	+1.7%
2026-08-23	Angers v Lille	the draw	3.72	LOST	0-2	+1.4%
2026-08-22	Parma v Cagliari	the draw	3.04	LOST	0-1	+3.1%

All strands side by side, dead ones included: the picks page. Why strands get added and retired: model changes. The credibility check behind every number: calibration.