Picks · strand · season 2026/27
Daily Home
Nothing on this page is a bet, and nothing here is advice.
Every pick is chosen by the rule below, logged before kick-off, settled in public. Stakes are an imaginary
£10; £0 has ever been staked. Three seasons of our own testing found no betting profit; the fair
expectation for this strand is a paper loss over time. That expectation, printed here, is the point.
Record
5-6-0
won-lost-push/void
Paper P/L
£-10.97
imaginary £10 a pick, £0 staked
CLV
+0.9%
beat the close 73% of 11
Run
2 / 2
current / best this season
The rule, in full
One home win a day: among 1X2 home wins that pass the pick test, priced 1.50 to 3.00, the home side the model rates likeliest to win. One per kick-off date; none when nothing qualifies. Added 24 Sep 2026 in the retired Daily Under’s slot. On 2024/25 and 2025/26 it beat the close 57% of the time with CLV +1.3% and a worst losing run of 7.
The exit rule (every live strand, printed 17 Oct 2026): over its last 30 settled picks logged since 17 Oct 2026, beat the closing price under 40% of the time with an average CLV below zero and it retires at the next Monday review. Rolling. Win or retire — the run it is on has nothing to do with it.
Where it stands: Collecting: 6 of the 30 settled picks since 17 Oct 2026 are in. Nothing can be judged yet.
Where it stands: Collecting: 6 of the 30 settled picks since 17 Oct 2026 are in. Nothing can be judged yet.
The curve, honestly
Cumulative paper P/L at the imaginary £10, every settled pick, losses in. It stays up when it falls.
Open
Open pick (2026-11-03): Preston v Sheffield Utd — Preston winning @ 2.88. Settles after full-time.
Every settled pick
11 settled · wins and losses alike · nothing removed.
| Day | Fixture | Pick | Odds | Result | Score | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | Athletic Club v Real Sociedad | Athletic Club winning | 2.11 | WON | 2-1 | +4.7% |
| 2026-10-31 | Millwall v Derby | Millwall winning | 1.69 | WON | 4-1 | +2.9% |
| 2026-10-27 | Sassuolo v Lazio | Sassuolo winning | 2.88 | LOST | 2-6 | -16.7% |
| 2026-10-25 | Athletic Club v Getafe | Athletic Club winning | 1.63 | WON | 4-0 | +4.6% |
| 2026-10-24 | FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen | FSV Mainz 05 winning | 1.68 | LOST | 2-3 | -4.1% |
| 2026-10-23 | Stade Brestois 29 v Nice | Stade Brestois 29 winning | 2.21 | LOST | 1-2 | -1.4% |
| 2026-10-18 | Paris FC v Rennes | Paris FC winning | 2.26 | WON | 4-3 | +4.1% |
| 2026-10-17 | Bristol City v Sheffield Utd | Bristol City winning | 2.13 | LOST | 0-1 | +7.6% |
| 2026-10-13 | Millwall v Swansea | Millwall winning | 2.39 | LOST | 0-1 | +3.4% |
| 2026-10-11 | Racing Santander v Valencia | Racing Santander winning | 2.31 | LOST | 2-2 | +2.9% |
| 2026-10-10 | Middlesbrough v Wolves | Middlesbrough winning | 2.22 | WON | 1-0 | +2.5% |
All strands side by side, dead ones included: the picks page. Why strands get added and retired: model changes. The credibility check behind every number: calibration.